Monday, December 28, 2009

The Numbers Game ... Christmas Day style

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With Dwight Howard leading the way, the Magic allow just 37.3 paint points per 100 possessions.

Christmas Day is the biggest stage in the NBA outside the postseason. And appropriately, seven of the nine best teams in the league are on the schedule. To get you ready, here are the critical and fascinating numbers behind each game.

Miami @ New York, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

Miami Heat: 14-12 (5-4 on the road), Fifth in Eastern Conference
Pace: 93.3 possessions/48 min. (26th)
Offense: 105.0 points scored per 100 possessions (14th)
Defense: 103.2 points allowed per 100 possessions (14th)

New York Knicks: 11-17 (7-8 at home), Ninth in Eastern Conference
Pace: 96.9 possessions/48 min. (8th)
Offense: 103.4 points scored per 100 possessions (18th)
Defense: 105.7 points allowed per 100 possessions (21st)

Five Numbers to Consider:

• Dwyane Wade is shooting a career-low 43.2 percent. After averaging 11.4 free-throw attempts through the first 21 games, he's averaged just 4.2 in his last five.

• After starting the season 3-14, the Knicks have won eight of their last 11, including six straight at home. In that 11-game stretch, they're playing at a much slower pace (94.2 possessions per 48 minutes) than they were in the first 17 games (98.7). Now, 4.5 possessions might not seem like a lot, but it's the difference between being one of the four fastest teams in the league and being one of the 10 slowest.

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• The Heat protect the ball very well, ranking second in the league by turning it over just 13.8 times per 100 possessions. But the Knicks' defense ranks sixth in turnover rate, forcing 16.6 per 100.

• The Knicks rank eighth in pace, but aren't a fast-break team. Only 9.2 percent of their points are scored on the break, ranking them 29th in fast break percentage. The Heat rank 28th at 9.3 percent.

• The Knicks defend the 3-point line very well, ranking third in the league by allowing their opponents to shoot just 31.8 percent from downtown. But they don't defend so well inside the arc, ranking 29th by allowing their opponents to shoot 52.8 percent from two-point range.

Boston @ Orlando, 2:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Boston Celtics: 22-5 (12-1 on the road), First in Eastern Conference
Pace: 94.1 possessions/48 min. (23rd)
Offense: 108.3 points scored per 100 possessions (5th)
Defense: 96.7 points allowed per 100 possessions (2nd)

Orlando Magic: 22-7 (12-2 at home), Second in Eastern Conference
Pace: 94.9 possessions/48 min. (15th)
Offense: 108.1 points scored per 100 possessions (7th)
Defense: 100.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (6th)

Five Numbers to Consider:

• The Celtics and Magic are the only two teams in the league that rank in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Boston ranks first in efficiency differential, scoring 11.5 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions.

• No team has fallen off in the rebounding department this season more than the Celtics. They were the second best rebounding team in the league in 2008-09, but rank 21st this season. And the fall-off has occurred on both ends of the floor.

Celtics Rebounding Rates, Last Three Seasons


Season OReb Rate RK DReb Rate RK TReb Rate RK
2007-08 26.6 18 74.4 8 51.9 4
2008-09 27.9 8 75.6 3 52.8 2
2009-10 24.1 28 72.8 18 49.6 21

Reb Rate = Percentage of available rebounds obtained

Combined, Kevin Garnett (-1.0), Paul Pierce (-0.8) and Rajon Rondo (-1.8) are averaging 3.7 fewer boards per 40 minutes than they did last season. The Celtics are also missing Leon Powe (now with Cleveland), who was their best rebounder (11.2 per 40 minutes).

• The Magic are a very good defensive team, but rank last by forcing just 12.9 turnovers per 100 possessions. They defend well by keeping their opponents out of the paint (ranking second by allowing just 37.3 paint points per 100 possessions) and rebounding (leading the league by grabbing 78.8 percent of available defensive boards). Dwight Howard has a little something to do with those numbers.

• Paul Pierce, who is out for two weeks after undergoing minor knee surgery on his right knee Wednesday, will be missing just his fourth game since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen came to Boston in 2007. The Celtics won the other three games (two in April of 2008 and one in April of 2009), but they were against teams with a combined 71-166 (0.300) record.

• Vince Carter is Orlando's leading scorer at 18.6 points per game, but he's shooting a career-low 39.8 percent from the field. Carter is also averaging his fewest field-goal attempts per game (16.1), but that's more than seven shots more than Dwight Howard. Even when you figure in Howard's frequent trips to the line, Carter's shooting more than the guy who ranks second in the league in field-goal percentage.

Cleveland @ L.A. Lakers, 5 p.m. ET, ABC

Cleveland Cavaliers: 22-8 (11-6 on the road), Third in Eastern Conference
Pace: 93.1 possessions/48 min. (28th)
Offense: 107.4 points scored per 100 possessions (8th)
Defense: 100.3 points allowed per 100 possessions (5th)

Los Angeles Lakers: 23-4 (16-2 at home), First in Western Conference
Pace: 97.5 possessions/48 min. (6th)
Offense: 105.1 points scored per 100 possessions (13th)
Defense: 96.4 points allowed per 100 possessions (1st)

Five Numbers to Consider:

• In their two meetings last season, the Lakers outscored the Cavs 104-52 in the paint. The Cavs ranked 19th in the league last year with a differential of -1.3 points in the paint per 100 possessions, while Shaquille O'Neal's Suns ranked first at +12.6. This year, Cleveland ranks 2nd with a differential of +6.4. The Lakers rank 4th at +5.1.

• Head-to-head, LeBron James leads Kobe Bryant 6-5. James is 6-6 in his career against the Lakers, but Bryant did not play in a Feb. 4, 2004 Lakers win. In the 11 games they've played against each other, James leads in points (26.8 to 24.2), rebounds (7.6 to 5.1), assists (6.7 to 4.9), steals (1.55 to 1.27) and blocks (0.55 to 0.27). Neither player has shot well in the 11 games; James has shot 41.6 percent, while Bryant has shot 42.5 percent.

• The Cavs are the best 3-point shooting team in the league, hitting 42.3 from beyond the arc. The Lakers have the best 3-point defense, allowing their opponents to shoot just 30.1 percent.

• Comparing their efficiency to the league average, this is the worst offensive team the Lakers have had during Kobe Bryant's 14-year career. They're 1.3 points per 100 possessions better than the league average, but that's worse than the +1.5 difference they had in his rookie season of 1996-97.

This is also the best defensive team the Lakers have had during Bryant's career, allowing 7.4 points per 100 possessions less than the league average. The total difference of 8.7 points per 100 possessions ranks 2nd among Lakers teams since '96-97. Only the 1999-00 team (the first of the three-peat squads) was better, with a difference of 9.0 (+3.3 offensively and -5.6 defensively).

• On Sunday, James played his 500th career regular season game. The Cavs had a record of 299-201 (0.598) in those 500 games. The Lakers were 347-153 (0.694) in Bryant's first 500 games, picking up three titles along the way.

L.A. Clippers @ Phoenix, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Los Angeles Clippers: 12-16 (5-8 on the road), 13th in Western Conference
Pace: 94.4 possessions/48 min. (20th)
Offense: 101.4 points scored per 100 possessions (23rd)
Defense: 103.4 points allowed per 100 possessions (17th)

Phoenix Suns: 18-11 (10-2 at home), Fourth in Western Conference
Pace: 97.9 possessions/48 min. (5th)
Offense: 111.1 points scored per 100 possessions (1st)
Defense: 107.6 points allowed per 100 possessions (25th)

Five Numbers to Consider:

• In October and November, the Suns went 14-3, scoring 114.0 points per 100 possessions. In December, they're 4-8 and scoring just 106.8 points per 100 possessions. The difference isn't Steve Nash. He's shooting better from the field and averaging 4.5 more points in the last 12 games than he did in first 17. But after shooting 50.3 percent in October and November, Nash's teammates are shooting just 45.9 percent in December.

• Before this season, Suns center Channing Frye had attempted 70 3-pointers in 278 career games (0.3 per game). This season, Frye has attempted 167 threes in 29 games (5.8 per game).

• The Clippers lead the league by blocking 6.32 shots per game. They've blocked 10 or more shots four times this season. Only twice since the 2004-05 season (5-plus years) have the Suns had 10 or more of their shots blocked.

• Three times in his 701-game career has Baron Davis played at least 24 minutes and scored two points (or less). Two of those times have been this season: Opening night against the Lakers on Nov. 23 against the Timberwolves.

• The last time these teams played in Phoenix (Feb. 17), the Suns won the game 140-100. It was the third largest margin of victory for the Suns since Steve Nash returned to Phoenix in 2004 and the second largest defeat for the Clippers in that same time period.

Denver @ Portland, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Denver Nuggets: 20-9 (7-8 on the road), Second in Western Conference
Pace: 98.2 possessions/48 min. (4th)
Offense: 109.6 points scored per 100 possessions (3rd)
Defense: 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions (15th)

Portland Trail Blazers: 19-12 (10-4 at home), Fifth in Western Conference
Pace: 90.1 possessions/48 min. (30th)
Offense: 105.6 points scored per 100 possessions (11th)
Defense: 101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions (8th)

Five Numbers to Consider:

• Carmelo Anthony scored 20 points or more in the first 21 games of the season and has done it in 27 of his 29 games total. The Nuggets are 9-0 when Anthony scores between 20 and 29 points, but just 10-8 when he scores 30 or more. One of those 10 wins was in Portland on Oct. 29, when he scored 41 points against the Blazers.

• No team makes a better living at the free throw line than the Nuggets. They rank first with an average of 32.9 free throw attempts per 100 possessions and rank second in the league by shooting them at an 80.4 percent clip.

• The Blazers are one of only two teams that ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They rank eighth by grabbing 28.4 percent of available offensive boards and seventh by grabbing 75.0 percent of available defensive boards.

• The Nuggets have lost their last four road games and are much worse offensively away from the Pepsi Center. At home, they score 114.5 points per 100 possessions. On the road, they score 104.8. Ball movement may be the biggest issue. At home, they assist on 62.3 percent of their field goals, as opposed to 50.4 on the road.

• Portland ranks last in the league by scoring just 34.4 percent of their points in the paint. They also rank last by scoring just 8.0 percent of their points on the break. They're a half-court, jump-shooting team.

All numbers are through Wednesday, Dec. 23.