OK, I'm going to trot out an unthinkable idea here, so give me a little latitude.
The Mavericks can finish No. 1 in the Western Conference.
No, wait. Hear me out on this one. Going into New Year's Eve's games, the Mavericks were three games behind the Lakers, who have played 20 homes games and just 11 on the road.
The Mavericks have played 16 at home and 15 on the road.
The Mavericks are a plus-six in terms of road wins vs. home losses. The Lakers are a plus-give. Of course, the Lakers' ratio will go up, most likely, as they play a slew of road games in January.
Still, there are plenty of places they could lose in the month, too. Their road games include visits to Portland, Dallas, San Antonio, Cleveland and Boston.
If the Mavericks continue to take care of business and play at the level they have been at pretty consistently for the last month, it's not out of the question that they could be the Lakers' shadow (or vice versa) going into February.
At least, not completely out of the question.
So go ahead and laugh now. But if the Mavericks are pressing the Lakers a month from now, I'll be the one writing "I told you so" in this space.
Q: OK, Big Ed, I clicked my heels three times and instead of going home, I ended up as the Mavericks GM in the summer of 2010. So trying to make the best of an awkward situation, I hire you as my consultant for a million dollars a week or until they fire me.
After thrashing around for a couple of days I say, "You know, Big Ed, I'm not sure we can get bigger and better than Erick and Drew in the middle. It also doesn't feel like LeBron or Dwyane will sign with us. I say let's see if we can re-sign Dampier for about $16 million for two years and try to re-sign Josh Howard at a discount for one year.
That's about $10 million off last year's payroll alone. What do you think about talking to Tracy McGrady about a one-year deal with a club option for a second year? Ed, put down that David Moore cashmere swimsuit calendar and let me know what you think.
John, Clearwater, Fla.
SEFKO: You had me at "a million dollars a week."
Actually, I love this question because it saves me having to do the gratuitous weekly jab at D-Moore. Plus, it's pretty sensible stuff. I do think you'll be able to get Dampier for less than $8 million yearly. I can't see anybody out there going over the mid-level exception to get him, so why outbid yourself. Shoot for closer to $6 million.
That's about where we part ways, though. It's not a given that Howard will stick around with the Mavericks, who likely will not exercise their option on Howard's contract for 2010-11. That will make him a free agent.
But where you really lost me was with Tracy McGrady. Perhaps you overlooked the job he did dividing the Houston locker room. They were absolutely relieved to have McGrady part ways with the team, even if it's not official yet.
There's no sense in bringing in that kind of questionable locker room influence to a team that genuinely has good karma.
Q: What are your beliefs on reducing the number of minutes of our eldest player, Jason Kidd? The Spurs have reduced Tim Duncan's time by three minutes per game. Do you think it makes a difference in the long run?
Ryan
SEFKO: The guy plays without a hint of athleticism, so I'm not a big believer that he will break down or wear out.
If you could back it down to 32 minutes per game instead of 36, it probably wouldn't hurt him. But when the playoffs come around and there are always days off and lots of TV timeouts, will a few extra minutes in December really come into play?
I rather doubt it.
In this season, I think it's worth it to pile up the wins. Finishing second in the West as opposed to fourth could make the difference between starting the playoffs against Oklahoma City or Houston rather than Phoenix or Portland or San Antonio.
Big difference in those.
Q: Great work on the blogs as always. My sister and I were at the game Saturday, and while the Mavs are having a good season so far, one thing we're concerned about is the trouble younger, athletic teams present.
This got us thinking about possible trades, and we wondered if the Mavs would have any interest in bringing in either Chris Bosh or Andrea Bargnani from Toronto. We could trade Dampier and Carroll for Bosh, if my math is right. Bargnani is not a power center, but he is a good offensive player and much younger. Any thoughts about going after these guys or someone similar? I'm just worried that four of our starters are in their 11th, 12th, 14th and 16th seasons.
Reggie
SEFKO: So you're the dude reading the blog. I appreciate that. I thought my editor was the only one reading.
As for your question, you should be worried about the age of this team. Older players are not always more susceptible to injury, but when they do get nicked up, they sometimes require longer to return.
Like everybody else, I think Chris Bosh is terrific. But the Raptors aren't just going to give him away, which is what getting Dampier and Carroll would be. That's not a fair return for a perennial All-Star.
The Mavericks would love to get a player like Bosh, but it won't be easy. As always, my recommendation for amateur GMs is to put yourself in the other team's shoes and ask yourself honestly if you'd do the deal you're proposing.
For now, with the Mavericks humming along and solidly No. 2 in the Western Conference, I wouldn't waste too much time scheming for big trades. They're going to see just how good this group can be.
I'd use that time praying for good health instead.
Q: Is there a reason why coach Rick Carlisle continues to not use Shawn Marion in the fourth quarter?
T.S.
SEFKO: Don't know if it's a trend or just the ebb and flow of a long season, but Marion is getting less time in the fourth quarter than Josh Howard.
My guess is there will come a time when both Marion and Howard will be in the lineup together, probably as starters and finishers.
Marion's minutes are holding pretty steady at 32 per game, so it's not like he's sitting for long stretches at any point in the game. Again, if I had to predict one way or the other, Marion's crunch time minutes will come sooner than later.
Q: Do you see Tracy McGrady playing in the NBA again this year? If so, where?
L. Arthur, Granbury
SEFKO: He'll probably end up somewhere in the Eastern Conference playing for a bad team that wants to lose his $23 million contract at the end of the season. It'll be up to Houston to figure out if they get enough value in return to trade him.
Another scenario could be that McGrady agrees to forfeit the last six weeks of his salary and gets waived in late February. That way he could sign with another team before March 1 and be playoff eligible.
Q: The Mavs' pre-Christmas doldrums seem to have coincided with Carlisle screwing down the rotation to eight or nine players. Their deep roster was used extensively, and to good effect, earlier. Yeah, yeah, I know rotations close down late in NBA seasons, but this seems to be a bit early for that.
Could this be part of the team's problem? Why did it happen so soon, and do you think this constriction might relax a bit in the near future?
Ken B., Dallas
P.S., my holiday gift to you is no mention of The Jet.
SEFKO: Kenny B. usually has something to say about Jason Terry, so that's sort of an inside joke. But he's also like most fans. They're never satisfied.
Last year, I remember fans being ticked off that Carlisle would never settle on eight or nine guys to go to war with. He was shuffling lineups all season, it seemed like.
Now, he's narrowed it to eight guys for most games and we wonder why he won't use the others.
But here's the easiest prediction I've ever made. James Singleton will get lots of chances in the last 50 games of the season. So will Kris Humphries, Quinton Ross and Tim Thomas. And even Roddy Beaubois and Matt Carroll will get a chance or three the rest of the way to contribute to what is looking like a charmed season so far for this team.
It's just the way the NBA is. Whether it will be because of a whim Carlisle has or an injury or whatever, they will play. Bank on it.
Q: It's been a long time since I submitted a question. I'm wondering what you think J.J. Barea's future looks like and do you think Dirk will retire a Maverick?
MouthyGirl
SEFKO: Indeed, it's been a long time, MG. Let's tackle J.J. first. The team has an option year on his contract for next season at the very palatable salary (for the team, not necessarily Barea) of $1.8 million.
Unless the Mavericks hatch some wild plan to go after Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson and need every available dime to get as far under the cap as possible, they will pick up the option for next season.
Beyond that, Barea is playing well enough that he will create lots of interest on the open market. It's hard to envision him as a starting guard on a great team. But then again, I guess he already is. If he embraces that role here – 20 to 25 minutes to fill up the basket and create energy on both ends of the court – no reason why he can't stay here for several more years.
Of course, if somebody throws crazy money at him in a year, it would be silly for him not to take it.
As for Dirk, the goal of every icon should be to stay with one team for his entire career. But it rarely happens. Karl Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon, Robert Parish, even Michael Jordan, all left their "career' teams and finished up elsewhere.
I think there's a better chance of Nowitzki staying with the Mavericks because there seems to be genuine love and respect between him and the franchise and the fans and the Dallas area. Even Dirk has said it just wouldn't feel right going somewhere else.
Let's face it: a coach goes before Dirk. Avery Johnson found that out. As long as Mark Cuban owns the team, Nowitzki probably isn't going anywhere.
Q: Maybe you can tell me what I'm missing with the Mavericks. I see a team that was not going to make the playoffs, but now might because of injuries and poor play by other teams. I see the Mavs as an average team. They got a bunch of players this summer (Marion, Thomas and Gooden) that nobody else wanted. And they'll never win anything as long as Dirk is the main man. I don't see any of their starters, including Dirk, fitting into another team. Where am I wrong?
SEFKO: Just about everywhere, especially because you didn't sign your e-mail. How exactly does an "average team" get to 22-10?
And you are among a dwindling number of Dirk bashers. He's convinced just about everybody with his play throughout his career and especially this season that he is on the short list of NBA superstars.
Sorry to go grumpy on you in the New Year, but that hits a nerve.
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