Sunday, February 28, 2010

Still a lot to be determined in East over final six weeks

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Brandon Jennings and the Bucks are above .500 for the first time since Dec. 2 and right in the playoff hunt.

The Eastern Conference playoff picture isn't nearly as cluttered as that of the West, but there's still a lot to be determined over the final 6 1/2 weeks of the season.

While the top four teams have set themselves apart since October, the bottom half of the playoff picture has looked different almost every week. And right now, it looks a lot different than it did on Jan. 11, when no team beyond the top four was above .500.

In fact, teams 5-8 have just as many wins since Christmas (69) as teams 1-4, which could make things interesting come April. Despite the top-heavy nature of the conference, we've still had some pretty good first-round series in the East over the last couple of years. And we may see another one or two go seven games again this season.

With only one game in the loss column separating the Magic, Celtics and Hawks, and just three games separating teams 5-9, we have no clue what the first-round matchups will be. And we may not find out until the games of April 14 are complete.

Here's how the teams line up for final month and a half of the season...

1. Cavaliers (46-14)

Remaining games: 22

Vs. teams .500 or better: 13

Opponents' winning percentage: .472

Home/road: 11/11

Back-to-backs: 3

The Cavs are down to zero centers on their roster, but they'll find out soon if they're getting Zydrunas Ilgauskas back and when they're getting Shaquille O'Neal back.

With a six-loss cushion over the Magic and Celtics, the Cavs' lead atop the East is pretty safe. But on the other side of the standings, the Lakers trail them by just one game in the loss column. And that should certainly be a concern if Cleveland is thinking championship. The team with home-court advantage has won the Finals 19 of the 25 years since the league went to the 2-3-2 format.

More concerning than the Cavs' center situation may be their defense of late. They've allowed their opponents to shoot 49 percent from the field and score 112.5 points per 100 possessions over the last nine games.

2. Magic (39-20)

Remaining games: 23

Vs. teams .500 or better: 11

Opponents' winning percentage: .465

Home/road: 12/11

Back-to-backs: 5

The Magic are 13-5 since that rough patch they had in January, but after Friday's loss in New Orleans, they're tied in the loss column with the Celtics. Last Sunday's win over Cleveland was good for the psyche, and they get the Cavs one more time (in Cleveland on April 11) this season.

The next test is the Lakers, who visit Orlando on March 7. They've also got three straight against the Nuggets, Mavs and Spurs at the end of March. The main objective for the final 23 games should be getting some consistency out of Vince Carter.

3. Celtics (36-20)

Remaining games: 26

Vs. teams .500 or better: 15

Opponents' winning percentage: .483

Home/road: 14/12

Back-to-backs: 7

Kevin Garnett is looking a little more mobile of late, but now Paul Pierce is out with a sprained thumb. And the Celtics have shown no signs of being able to flip the switch as the playoffs approach. They're just 13-15 since Christmas, having cracked 100 points just seven times in those 28 games.

The Celtics still have the No. 1 defense in the league, but they've struggled offensively. They have one of the tougher schedules of this group, but if they can get the offense going, they still have the ability to beat anybody they play.

4. Hawks (36-21)

Remaining games: 25

Vs. teams .500 or better: 12

Opponents' winning percentage: .472

Home/road: 11/14

Back-to-backs: 7

The Hawks have been treading water for the last couple of months, lacking any consistency on the defensive end of the floor. They haven't won more than three straight since Dec. 18.

Atlanta is in position to meet the Cavs in the conference semifinals again, which may be a better matchup than the Magic. They've lost six straight games to Orlando, by an average of 18.5 points.

5. Raptors (31-26)

Remaining games: 25

Vs. teams .500 or better: 13

Opponents' winning percentage: .479

Home/road: 11/14

Back-to-backs: 8

The Raptors have gone 20-9 since Dec. 18, but they've dropped two straight and lead the Bulls by just 1/2 game for the fifth spot. A drop to sixth wouldn't be the worst thing, because they were crushed by the Hawks in both meetings this season. Of course, they're just 1-10 against the Celtics since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived in Boston.

It's hard to say if the Raptors have an easier schedule than the Bulls. Though the Bulls have more games remaining against winning teams, they've had more success against them. Toronto is just 9-17 against teams at .500 or better. They've also got a road-heavy schedule the rest of the way, include a four-game trip out west.

6. Bulls (31-27)

Remaining games: 24

Vs. teams .500 or better: 16

Opponents' winning percentage: .508

Home/road: 13/11

Back-to-backs: 8

The Bulls are 17-7 over their last 24 games, and only the Cavs have a better record in that time in the East. While Derrick Rose has been carrying them offensively, their defense has been consistently good.

They've got the toughest schedule of any team on this list, but they've been solid (14-15) against winning teams and have won six of their last eight on the second night of a back-to-back.

7. Bucks (29-28)

Remaining games: 25

Vs. teams .500 or better: 15

Opponents' winning percentage: .515

Home/road: 14/11

Back-to-backs: 7

The Bucks have won five straight and are above .500 for the first time since Dec. 2. Andrew Bogut has been their star, but like the Bulls, the defense has been their backbone.

They've got a tough remaining schedule too, and they're just 9-17 against teams at .500 or better, but the Bucks are an impressive 10-5 (tied with Cleveland for best in the East) on the second night of a back-to-back.

8. Heat (29-29)

Remaining games: 24

Vs. teams .500 or better: 10

Opponents' winning percentage: .439

Home/road: 13/11

Back-to-backs: 5

No team on this list has an easier remaining schedule than the Heat, but Dwyane Wade is currently out with a calf injury, and this team has been on a roller coaster all season. So you never know what you're going to get.

It may all come down to their two remaining games with the Bobcats: March 9 in Charlotte and March 20 in Miami.

9. Bobcats (28-29)

Remaining games: 25

Vs. teams .500 or better: 15

Opponents' winning percentage: .476

Home/road: 13/12

Back-to-backs: 8

Still chasing their first ever playoff berth, the Bobcats have made multiple in-season trades to try and get them over the hump. But they're just 4-7 in February and play the Mavs, Celtics and Lakers before their schedule eases up a bit.

They're the one team at the bottom of this list that may have a shot against the Cavs in a first-round series, having won three straight against Cleveland. If only they weren't 1-2 against New Jersey, they'd be in playoff position right now.


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