Paul's steady hand shows most for Hornets in close games

Chris Paul always seems to keep the Hornets buzzing along in close games.

When something happens year after year, can it really be a fluke?

With that in mind, perhaps we need to revisit the notion that the Hornets shouldn't have as many wins as they have.

With their one-point victory in Portland on Monday, the Hornets are 14-3 in games decided by five points or less this season. Combine that with a 1-7 record in games decided by 15 points or more and you have a team with a negative point differential (-1.2 per game) and a winning record.

Their point differential says the Hornets should be 20-25 at this point, yet instead they're 25-20. The Hornets sit in eighth place in the Western Conference, but statistically, three of the teams behind them in the standings are better.

As it has been written in this space before, the Hornets' record is the most inflated mark in the league.

But this is not new. The Hornets have had a winning record in close games every season since they drafted Chris Paul, and they've had inflated records in four of those five seasons. Only in 2007-08 did they win fewer games (56) than their point differential said they should have (58).

In total, the Hornets are 67-33 (.670) in games decided by five points or less in Paul's four-plus seasons. Only the Mavs (75-32, .701) have a better record in close games in that span.

Hornets' record in games decided by five points or less, last five seasons

Season W L 2005-06 14 7 2006-07 13 12 2007-08 13 5 2008-09 13 6 2009-10 14 3 TOTAL 67 33

The Mavs' record in close games is comparable to their overall record over the last five seasons. Dallas has the best overall winning percentage (.692) in the league since the 2005-06 season, while the Hornets are 12th (.555).

Since Paul came into the league, his team has been much better in close games than they've been otherwise. The difference between their record in close games and their record in not-so-close ones is the greatest in the league in that timeframe.

Biggest difference, winning percentage in close games vs. other games, last five seasons

Team Close W Close L Close Pct. Other W Other L Other Pct. Diff. Pct. New Orleans 67 33 0.670 140 133 0.513 0.1572 Portland 63 46 0.578 112 154 0.421 0.1569 New York 51 64 0.443 78 179 0.304 0.140 New Jersey 55 48 0.534 107 162 0.398 0.136 Miami 59 46 0.562 118 150 0.440 0.122

In general, there should not be that big of a discrepancy between a team's overall record and its record in close games. And in time, they should even out.

But it's impossible to ignore how well the Hornets have done in close games since Paul arrived in New Orleans. They simply play better when a game comes down to the final minutes. And it makes some sense, given Paul's competitiveness and his ability to control possessions as the best point guard in the league. Also, because the ball is in Paul's hands so much, the Hornets aren't as susceptible to the inconsistencies of role players.

A look at their numbers this season shows that the Hornets thrive in clutch situations (last five minutes of regulation or overtime, with a scoring margin of five points or less).

In non-clutch situations this season (2,052 minutes of playing time), the Hornets score just 104.0 points per 100 possessions and allow 106.2. But in clutch situations (128 minutes), they score 117.9 points per 100 possessions and allow just 96.2.

If only the Hornets played every game like it was close down the stretch, they'd not only be the best offensive and best defensive team in the league, but they'd be 43-2!

There are several keys to the Hornets' improved play in the closing minutes of close games.

Hornets' Key Offensive Numbers, Clutch vs. Non-Clutch Situations

Situation Off. Rat. EFG% OReb Rt TO/Poss FTA/Poss Clutch 117.9 0.486 0.330 10.3 39.7 Non-Clutch 104.0 0.500 0.243 13.8 20.6

Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions EFG% = (FGM + (0.5*3PM))/FGA OReb Rt = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained TO/Poss = Turnovers per 100 possessions FTA/Poss = Free-throw attempts per 100 possessions

The Hornets actually shoot worse in clutch situations than they do otherwise. But they rebound better, turn the ball over less and get to the line more often ... a lot more often. They attempt almost twice as many free throws per possession in clutch situations than they do otherwise.

Paul, David West and James Posey have played the most clutch minutes for the Hornets this season, and all three have much higher free-throw rates in those situations than they do at other times of the game. And not only do they shoot them often, they shoot them well. Paul and Posey are shooting a combined 35-for-39 (89.7 percent) from the line in clutch situations this season.

Hornets' Key Defensive Numbers, Clutch vs. Non-Clutch Situations

Situation Def. Rat. OEFG% DReb Rt OTO/Poss OFTA/Poss Clutch 96.1 0.408 0.739 14.9 42.0 Non-Clutch 106.2 0.517 0.728 15.2 21.9

Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions OEFG% = (Opp. FGM+(0.5*Opp. 3PM))/Opp. FGA DReb Rt = Percentage of available defensive rebounds obtained OTO/Poss = Opponents' turnovers per 100 possessions OFTA/Poss = Opponents' free-throw attempts per 100 possessions

Looking at the Hornets' defensive numbers, we note that their opponents are actually shooting more free throws in clutch situations than they are, but the opponents (.760 FT percentage) don't shoot them as well as the Hornets do (.830 percent).

Contesting shots is where the Hornets excel down the stretch. Their opponents suffer a serious dropoff in shooting percentage in the final minutes of close games, both from 3-point range and inside the arc.

Can the Hornets keep this up? Are they really as 25-20 team, or will we see them come back down to earth?

The previous four seasons tell us that we might need to get used to an inflated record when Paul's running the show.

"We're used to this," Paul said after Monday's win over the Blazers. "We do this night in and night out. We don't do any blowouts. We don't believe in them."

It's hard to argue with the guy, because the numbers back him up.

All statistics are through Wednesday, Jan. 27 and were compiled with the help of the NBA and StatsCube.